Gotta say that the result from the New Town & Christ Church by-election for Colchester City Council was something of a surprise: a Labour HOLD.
For the record:
ALLAN, Angus (Tory) 200
BOURNE, Richard (Lab) 800 ELECTED
CHILD, Simon (Reform UK) 600
MCCORMICK, Alex (Green) 401
PARTRIDGE, Ian (Indie) 38
WHYBOURN, Chantelle-Louse (LD) 657
First things first: the final totals of 200, 800 and 600 for the Tory, Labour and Reform candidates suggests that the counting took place in bundles, or the good folk of New Town & Christ Church are OCD in their voting habits.
Note that no one called for a recount, natch.
The Labour HOLD - and by some fair margin - is a surprise. I’m not telling you anything new when I say that the party isn’t exactly experiencing a national love in.
Locally on the ground in Sunny Colch, and the picture is a little more mixed. There is the view that Colchester Labour has some good eggs, along with some rather unpleasant characters.
It’s the same for most CLP’s around the country, tbh.
Factor in that the seat became vacant after City Councillor Pam Cox managed to get elected as the MP for the Colchester constituency over a year ago, and the Labour HOLD is actually quite remarkable.
If ever there was an opportunity for the national party to get a good old kicking locally, then New Town & Christ Church was a gift horse.
Reform is the other obvious talking point here. They have come from nowhere locally, with little to no organisation or local party structure.
Never underestimate the foot soldiers and data that are required to fight a successful local campaign. Starting from scratch and blagging 600 votes is a bloody good effort, not to mention a rather frightening one.
If Essex devolution ever happens and the new Unitary authority finally gets set up, then you can see how three party politics in the city has come to an end.
Elsewhere and it’s difficult to comment on the level of tactical voting that may - or may not - have taken place.
The progressive vote with the Greens, Labour and LibDems is strong. If any of them can be arsed to enter into informal coalitions, then this is the way to stop Reform at this level.
I wonder how many votes were lent by the electorate to each of these three parties with a view to crowning the progressive poster boy or girl?
Playing 3D chess at the ballot box is a dangerous game.
Overall it means that there is no overall change in the seats at Colchester City Council:
Conservative - 19
LibDems - 14
Labour - 14
Green - 1
Indies - 1
The LibLab love in limps on, although behind the scenes relationships are a little more ahem fractured.
The 29% turn out yesterday was poor, btw. It was pissing it down all day to be fair.
Just kick it until it breaks, etc.